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Red106
790222.2
447653.6
132518.8
Blue61
958016.9
1001515.6
611021.9
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10351015010661

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+49Teleop
+49Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave0
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points10
30Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +29
14Coral scored#8
52Coral points29
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#3
6Processor points0
12Net points12
18Algae points12
70Total teleop41
Reef
6L4#3
6L3#4
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
2Foul points6
106Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.61.0
50.751.6
Auto18.7
Teleop33.2
End1.7
red by 31.7
6110
#15
21.90.1
24.023.9
Auto5.5
Teleop15.6
End0.8
Second
7902
#20
22.21.0
20.321.3
Auto2.7
Teleop14.8
End4.8
red by 5.3
9580
#16
16.90.1
13.813.8
Auto2.6
Teleop11.9
End2.4
Third
1325
#27
18.81.0
16.917.8
Auto3.4
Teleop13.3
End2.1
red by 3.2
15.60.1
12.712.7
Auto7.0
Teleop6.3
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed