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Red50
698710.5
611021.9
748030.4
Blue106
720023.4
926314.9
540960.7
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions657720406010012050106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+64
Endgame+62
Fouls+56
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave0
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points9
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +68
5Coral scored#17
19Coral points61
0Processor algae#3
2Net algae#4
0Processor points18
8Net points16
8Algae points34
27Total teleop95
Reef
3L4#5
2L3#7
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
9Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
6Foul points0
50Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.41.4
26.124.7
Auto4.9
Teleop24.2
End1.3
blue by 30.2
60.74.7
32.937.6
Auto12.4
Teleop44.8
End3.5
Second
6110
#15
21.91.4
16.715.3
Auto5.5
Teleop15.6
End0.8
blue by 1.5
7200
#14
23.44.7
17.722.4
Auto2.6
Teleop19.7
End1.1
Third
6987
#25
10.51.4
13.712.3
Auto2.7
Teleop6.6
End1.2
blue by 4.4
9263
#11
14.94.7
13.117.8
Auto3.1
Teleop7.9
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
39%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed