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Red124
415247.3
958016.9
447653.6
Blue83
909837.8
588512.8
124143.1
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123965015020012483

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+45Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave6
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points7
30Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +28
14Coral scored#8
50Coral points30
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
18Processor points6
8Net points12
26Algae points18
76Total teleop48
Reef
7L4#3
4L3#3
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +4
12Cage & park16
12Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +41
6Foul points6
124Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.60.1
52.953.0
Auto18.7
Teleop33.2
End1.7
red by 10.6
43.10.4
43.643.2
Auto9.5
Teleop30.6
End3.0
Second
47.30.1
46.646.6
Auto11.1
Teleop30.4
End5.8
red by 9.5
37.80.4
38.337.9
Auto7.5
Teleop21.7
End8.6
Third
9580
#16
16.90.1
16.216.2
Auto2.6
Teleop11.9
End2.4
red by 4.1
5885
#24
12.80.4
13.312.9
Auto3.7
Teleop7.4
End1.8