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Qual 642025 ONT District North Bay Event
Red104
494676.5
133419.8
201311.6
Blue112
415261.8
270828.9
1046411.9
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118108050150200250300350400104112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+6
Endgame+8
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave0
4Coral scored#7
21Coral points33
30Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +3
11Coral scored#11
38Coral points41
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
62Total teleop65
Reef
4L4#8
5L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points0
104Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4946
#4
76.50.0
73.2→73.1
Auto20.7
Teleop47.2
End8.6
red by 14.7
4152
#3
61.80.9
58.6→59.5
Auto16.2
Teleop38.6
End7.1
Second
1334
#27
19.80.1
19.8→19.8
Auto4.0
Teleop13.6
End2.2
blue by 9.1
2708
#17
28.90.9
28.4→29.3
Auto7.6
Teleop18.5
End2.8
Third
2013
#32
11.60.1
11.7→11.6
Auto2.1
Teleop7.3
End2.2
blue by 0.3
10464
#20
11.90.9
11.3→12.2
Auto3.9
Teleop6.0
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsMissed68%Barge oddsEarned