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Red79
956922.0
587025.6
219819.2
Blue53
771222.9
906224.9
354315.9
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6261203040507080907953

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+18Teleop
+20Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +11
10Coral scored#9
35Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
53Total teleop42
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#3
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
6Foul points0
79Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5870
#12
25.61.1
23.724.8
Auto3.1
Teleop21.0
End1.5
red by 0.7
9062
#13
24.90.2
24.524.2
Auto3.0
Teleop21.0
End0.9
Second
9569
#22
22.01.1
19.220.2
Auto3.3
Teleop16.6
End2.1
blue by 0.9
7712
#10
22.90.2
19.319.1
Auto4.3
Teleop14.6
End3.9
Third
2198
#19
19.21.1
14.315.3
Auto5.8
Teleop11.0
End2.5
red by 3.3
3543
#30
15.90.3
12.612.3
Auto2.6
Teleop10.5
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed