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Red144
771222.9
447670.3
686418.2
Blue94
219819.2
491744.4
285223.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11081406010012014016014494

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+50Teleop
+58Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave0
4Coral scored#5
21Coral points23
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +43
18Coral scored#11
64Coral points39
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#3
12Processor points6
24Net points12
36Algae points18
100Total teleop57
Reef
7L4#5
5L3#7
7L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#20
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
0Foul points8
144Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.33.0
65.268.2
Auto21.7
Teleop45.2
End3.4
red by 25.9
44.40.5
42.543.0
Auto9.8
Teleop28.0
End6.6
Second
7712
#10
22.93.0
19.122.1
Auto4.3
Teleop14.6
End3.9
blue by 0.4
2852
#31
23.30.4
20.821.2
Auto5.4
Teleop17.5
End0.3
Third
6864
#24
18.23.7
14.618.3
Auto4.7
Teleop10.3
End3.2
blue by 1.0
2198
#19
19.20.4
16.416.8
Auto5.8
Teleop11.0
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsMissed