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Red31
95896.6
1001514.5
906224.9
Blue58
959215.1
771222.9
686418.2
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions576501001502003158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+23
Endgame+33
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +20
3Coral scored#6
11Coral points21
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
15Total teleop35
Reef
1L4#3
1L3#1
0L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
6Foul points0
31Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9062
#13
24.91.6
25.724.0
Auto3.0
Teleop21.0
End0.9
red by 2.0
7712
#10
22.90.2
22.122.3
Auto4.3
Teleop14.6
End3.9
Second
14.51.6
15.714.0
Auto6.5
Teleop5.0
End3.0
blue by 3.7
6864
#24
18.20.2
18.318.5
Auto4.7
Teleop10.3
End3.2
Third
9589
#28
6.61.8
8.46.6
Auto1.1
Teleop4.0
End1.4
blue by 8.6
9592
#18
15.10.2
14.915.1
Auto3.1
Teleop9.8
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed36%Barge oddsEarned