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Red142
368392.5
999220.1
958016.6
Blue112
965918.7
909847.0
447669.4
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125151050100200250300142112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+28Teleop
+24Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +17
17Coral scored#18
60Coral points65
3Processor algae#0
4Net algae#3
18Processor points0
16Net points12
34Algae points12
94Total teleop77
Reef
8L4#11
8L3#5
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +4
12Cage & park16
12Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
6Foul points0
142Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
92.51.3
91.192.3
Auto25.0
Teleop61.3
End6.3
red by 23.1
69.41.5
67.966.4
Auto14.4
Teleop51.1
End4.0
Second
9992
#16
20.12.1
13.415.5
Auto3.5
Teleop13.8
End2.3
blue by 26.8
9098
#10
47.01.5
49.247.7
Auto11.3
Teleop25.0
End10.7
Third
9580
#18
16.61.3
12.713.9
Auto4.1
Teleop11.5
End1.1
blue by 2.1
9659
#24
18.71.5
17.315.8
Auto3.1
Teleop15.6
End-0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
50%Coral oddsEarned65%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed85%Barge oddsEarned