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Red89
752051.5
999023.5
999415.0
Blue41
790230.3
86529.1
133415.7
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1048102040601201401608941

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+48Teleop
+50Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave0
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points10
30Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +28
9Coral scored#5
33Coral points17
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
12Processor points0
8Net points8
20Algae points8
53Total teleop25
Reef
4L4#2
6L3#2
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
0Foul points2
89Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.51.2
48.549.7
Auto18.0
Teleop33.1
End0.6
red by 21.2
30.32.5
28.225.7
Auto3.2
Teleop23.6
End3.7
Second
23.52.1
15.517.6
Auto10.1
Teleop8.7
End4.1
blue by 5.5
865
#11
29.12.5
31.929.4
Auto9.6
Teleop15.1
End4.7
Third
9994
#16
15.02.1
6.58.6
Auto3.8
Teleop10.7
End-0.1
blue by 0.7
1334
#13
15.72.5
16.213.7
Auto3.8
Teleop10.9
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned61%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed69%Barge oddsMissed