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Red111
447651.4
999023.5
790230.3
Blue74
999231.9
906225.6
999314.3
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14543010020025011174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+25Teleop
+25Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
9Leave6
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points9
23Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +17
13Coral scored#9
48Coral points33
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
6Processor points12
16Net points8
22Algae points20
70Total teleop53
Reef
6L4#4
4L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#15
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
12Foul points0
111Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4476
#12
51.41.5
63.562.0
Auto12.0
Teleop37.1
End2.5
red by 19.5
9992
#10
31.90.9
18.018.9
Auto7.1
Teleop21.4
End2.9
Second
30.31.5
32.831.3
Auto3.2
Teleop23.6
End3.7
red by 4.6
9062
#14
25.60.5
23.423.9
Auto5.3
Teleop19.6
End0.9
Third
23.52.5
16.914.3
Auto10.1
Teleop8.7
End4.1
red by 9.2
9993
#15
14.30.9
18.719.6
Auto6.2
Teleop7.2
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsMissed