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Red137
18843.5
755851.6
613513.6
Blue146
7717.9
61048.8
78147.1
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11310080120140160180137146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+7
Endgame+5
Fouls+9
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave0
6Coral scored#6
28Coral points30
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +14
19Coral scored#25
70Coral points90
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
94Total teleop108
Reef
9L4#11
6L3#8
7L2#9
3L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#35
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Penalties & totalBlue +9
2Foul points6
137Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.60.7
49.950.6
Auto11.8
Teleop31.9
End8.0
red by 2.8
610
#2
48.81.0
45.946.9
Auto6.1
Teleop42.2
End0.5
Second
188
#5
43.50.7
41.842.5
Auto9.5
Teleop31.7
End2.4
blue by 3.5
781
#6
47.11.0
44.145.1
Auto12.1
Teleop32.5
End2.5
Third
6135
#21
13.60.7
12.012.7
Auto4.0
Teleop7.7
End1.9
red by 5.8
771
#28
7.91.0
5.06.0
Auto3.3
Teleop2.6
End2.0