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Red87
713617.8
926218.5
497647.0
Blue78
293544.5
401515.1
663220.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions747240506080901001108778

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+3Teleop
+3Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave0
4Coral scored#3
18Coral points16
27Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +8
10Coral scored#11
36Coral points38
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
50Total teleop58
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#6
3L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#18
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
6Foul points0
87Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.01.0
38.639.6
Auto14.2
Teleop31.4
End1.4
red by 2.4
44.51.4
36.537.9
Auto9.8
Teleop32.8
End2.0
Second
9262
#10
18.51.0
13.114.1
Auto6.8
Teleop9.4
End2.4
blue by 1.8
6632
#25
20.31.3
14.015.3
Auto3.0
Teleop14.5
End2.8
Third
7136
#26
17.81.7
14.316.0
Auto3.6
Teleop13.0
End1.2
red by 2.7
4015
#27
15.10.8
15.015.8
Auto4.6
Teleop9.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsMissed