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Red197
368394.4
467881.6
926313.2
Blue141
909858.8
461714.8
403961.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions211131100150250300197141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+54Teleop
+56Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave3
10Coral scored#9
48Coral points47
54Total auto50
TeleoperatedRed +50
25Coral scored#18
89Coral points63
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
18Processor points6
20Net points8
38Algae points14
127Total teleop77
Reef
19L4#13
6L3#6
4L2#3
6L1 · trough#5
43Game pieces#30
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points0
197Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
94.40.2
94.394.4
Auto25.7
Teleop65.6
End3.1
red by 32.7
61.70.1
61.661.7
Auto15.9
Teleop43.2
End2.6
Second
81.60.2
81.481.6
Auto20.7
Teleop52.5
End8.3
red by 22.7
58.80.1
58.758.8
Auto14.3
Teleop34.9
End9.7
Third
9263
#21
13.20.2
13.013.2
Auto4.0
Teleop7.6
End1.6
blue by 1.7
4617
#24
14.80.1
14.714.8
Auto4.4
Teleop8.6
End1.8