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Red104
491758.2
1021822.6
567212.6
Blue118
591233.7
403961.7
687512.8
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10712050150200104118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+20
Endgame+8
Fouls+14
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave6
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points17
19Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +16
10Coral scored#16
37Coral points57
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
69Total teleop85
Reef
5L4#6
3L3#5
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points6
104Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.20.1
56.556.6
Auto14.0
Teleop33.7
End10.5
blue by 3.5
61.70.1
54.054.1
Auto15.9
Teleop43.2
End2.6
Second
22.60.2
28.128.3
Auto5.8
Teleop15.0
End1.8
blue by 11.1
33.70.1
30.730.8
Auto7.3
Teleop25.1
End1.3
Third
5672
#15
12.60.2
14.614.8
Auto2.9
Teleop7.4
End2.4
blue by 0.1
6875
#27
12.80.1
23.723.8
Auto2.0
Teleop8.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsMissed