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Red27
616215.6
461714.8
1051410.9
Blue43
567212.6
705819.1
926313.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions616130405070802743

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+6
Endgame+8
Fouls+16
Autonomouslevel
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +6
2Coral scored#2
6Coral points8
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
6Total teleop12
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#3
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
10Foul points18
27Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6162
#19
15.63.1
19.716.6
Auto6.3
Teleop8.8
End0.6
blue by 3.5
7058
#17
19.12.4
23.120.7
Auto5.2
Teleop10.4
End3.5
Second
4617
#24
14.83.1
13.910.7
Auto4.4
Teleop8.6
End1.8
red by 1.7
9263
#21
13.21.7
10.08.4
Auto4.0
Teleop7.6
End1.6
Third
10.93.1
15.912.8
Auto3.6
Teleop6.0
End1.3
blue by 1.7
5672
#15
12.62.4
17.214.8
Auto2.9
Teleop7.4
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed58%Barge oddsEarned