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Red205
403950.3
1055425.1
205694.7
Blue114
220063.1
502429.7
571922.3
93%Model gave it7%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16910950150200250205114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+71Teleop
+73Endgame
+91Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points34
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +71
25Coral scored#16
90Coral points57
4Processor algae#1
7Net algae#2
24Processor points6
28Net points8
52Algae points14
142Total teleop71
Reef
11L4#7
8L3#6
7L2#7
6L1 · trough#3
43Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +91
20Foul points2
205Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
94.73.2
81.684.8
Auto24.5
Teleop68.5
End1.7
red by 31.6
63.10.1
59.359.2
Auto15.3
Teleop45.2
End2.6
Second
50.33.2
45.048.2
Auto15.9
Teleop30.6
End3.9
red by 20.7
5024
#14
29.70.1
24.424.3
Auto10.3
Teleop17.4
End2.0
Third
25.13.2
24.327.5
Auto3.9
Teleop20.7
End0.5
red by 2.8
5719
#16
22.30.1
23.223.1
Auto6.3
Teleop14.7
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
46%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed