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Red151
403950.3
808919.1
136042.1
Blue82
270225.0
912722.8
568927.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1316605010015020015182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+65Teleop
+69Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +44
22Coral scored#15
79Coral points53
4Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
24Processor points6
12Net points12
36Algae points18
115Total teleop71
Reef
13L4#7
6L3#5
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#21
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
0Foul points0
151Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.32.7
49.652.3
Auto15.9
Teleop30.6
End3.9
red by 22.6
5689
#12
27.70.7
21.622.3
Auto5.2
Teleop19.8
End2.7
Second
1360
#13
42.12.7
40.042.7
Auto4.1
Teleop37.4
End0.5
red by 17.0
2702
#27
25.00.7
23.223.9
Auto4.7
Teleop19.8
End0.5
Third
8089
#10
19.12.7
16.719.5
Auto5.9
Teleop8.9
End4.2
blue by 3.7
9127
#21
22.80.7
15.316.0
Auto3.6
Teleop18.1
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed