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Red212
205694.7
270629.3
912722.8
Blue188
568927.7
111465.4
502429.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15812750100200212188

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+24Teleop
+18Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave9
7Coral scored#6
35Coral points31
44Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +20
33Coral scored#19
118Coral points70
3Processor algae#5
6Net algae#10
18Processor points30
24Net points40
42Algae points70
160Total teleop140
Reef
17L4#9
12L3#5
7L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
8Foul points2
212Total score188

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
94.74.4
88.292.6
Auto24.5
Teleop68.5
End1.7
red by 29.3
65.44.7
59.764.5
Auto19.2
Teleop44.2
End2.0
Second
29.34.4
24.328.8
Auto6.9
Teleop21.5
End1.0
blue by 0.4
5024
#14
29.74.7
25.029.7
Auto10.3
Teleop17.4
End2.0
Third
9127
#21
22.84.4
17.822.2
Auto3.6
Teleop18.1
End1.0
blue by 4.9
5689
#12
27.74.7
23.027.7
Auto5.2
Teleop19.8
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
47%Coral oddsEarned36%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed