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Red85
1061118.9
616212.1
588522.9
Blue32
1051416.4
461712.7
559619.0
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions565002040801008532

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+49Teleop
+53Endgame
+53Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave6
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +42
14Coral scored#3
52Coral points12
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
6Processor points0
8Net points12
14Algae points12
66Total teleop24
Reef
7L4#1
4L3#1
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
20Game pieces#6
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +53
0Foul points0
85Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5885
#18
22.91.7
12.814.5
Auto6.8
Teleop14.0
End2.1
red by 3.9
5596
#11
19.01.4
11.810.3
Auto3.0
Teleop13.8
End2.3
Second
18.91.7
18.219.9
Auto3.7
Teleop12.6
End2.5
red by 2.5
16.41.4
14.312.9
Auto3.9
Teleop11.5
End1.0
Third
6162
#19
12.11.7
15.817.6
Auto4.3
Teleop7.1
End0.7
blue by 0.6
4617
#27
12.71.4
16.815.4
Auto3.9
Teleop6.9
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed39%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed