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Red157
808132.9
373938.3
494038.2
Blue82
713617.9
568925.7
616212.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1417805010020015782

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+55Teleop
+73Endgame
+75Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +52
20Coral scored#13
71Coral points45
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#2
18Processor points12
28Net points8
46Algae points20
117Total teleop65
Reef
8L4#4
5L3#4
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#18
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +75
4Foul points2
157Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3739
#10
38.31.2
34.635.9
Auto5.8
Teleop31.2
End1.3
red by 12.6
5689
#15
25.70.7
26.826.1
Auto5.5
Teleop18.4
End1.9
Second
38.21.2
34.435.7
Auto5.7
Teleop24.4
End8.1
red by 20.3
7136
#24
17.90.7
18.417.7
Auto4.8
Teleop11.4
End1.7
Third
32.91.2
32.033.3
Auto6.5
Teleop18.7
End7.7
red by 20.9
6162
#19
12.10.7
12.812.1
Auto4.3
Teleop7.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed