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Red93
588522.9
685417.0
492046.5
Blue90
808132.9
672531.3
375627.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93109501502009390

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+1Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave0
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points12
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +10
11Coral scored#14
40Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
54Total teleop64
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#4
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
17Game pieces#19
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
93Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.50.2
45.545.7
Auto15.2
Teleop28.8
End2.5
red by 13.6
32.90.0
33.032.9
Auto6.5
Teleop18.7
End7.7
Second
5885
#18
22.90.2
21.822.0
Auto6.8
Teleop14.0
End2.1
blue by 8.5
6725
#13
31.30.0
31.431.3
Auto5.1
Teleop24.1
End2.2
Third
6854
#20
17.00.2
16.016.2
Auto4.8
Teleop10.3
End1.9
blue by 10.2
3756
#16
27.30.0
27.327.3
Auto2.7
Teleop20.8
End3.8