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Red158
366352.9
363655.7
944616.8
Blue13
28989.5
184411.7
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1241705010015015813

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+109Teleop
+121Endgame
+145Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
26Coral points6
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +92
17Coral scored#0
60Coral points0
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#0
12Processor points0
20Net points0
32Algae points0
92Total teleop0
Reef
7L4#1
8L3#0
5L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
29Game pieces#1
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +145
24Foul points0
158Total score13

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.73.6
37.441.0
Auto13.5
Teleop39.7
End2.4
red by 44.0
1844
#29
11.71.6
11.610.0
Auto4.5
Teleop5.5
End1.7
Second
52.93.6
45.749.3
Auto13.3
Teleop34.8
End4.7
red by 43.4
2898
#28
9.51.0
6.75.7
Auto3.9
Teleop4.0
End1.6
Third
9446
#23
16.83.6
18.522.1
Auto2.6
Teleop11.2
End2.9
red by 8.0
8.81.6
9.57.8
Auto4.1
Teleop2.8
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed