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Red111
28989.5
366352.9
95748.5
Blue73
944616.8
84721.7
703430.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions104665015011173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+30Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
6Coral scored#3
28Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +9
11Coral scored#8
40Coral points27
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
60Total teleop51
Reef
4L4#5
7L3#3
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#16
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
111Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.92.1
49.351.4
Auto13.3
Teleop34.8
End4.7
red by 22.1
30.80.5
24.224.8
Auto4.5
Teleop21.1
End5.2
Second
957
#3
48.52.1
37.339.4
Auto15.1
Teleop26.0
End7.4
red by 26.9
847
#11
21.70.5
18.819.4
Auto4.7
Teleop14.6
End2.4
Third
2898
#28
9.51.3
5.76.9
Auto3.9
Teleop4.0
End1.6
blue by 7.3
9446
#23
16.80.9
22.123.0
Auto2.6
Teleop11.2
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed