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Red114
263521.2
669637.4
363655.7
Blue93
703430.8
255721.2
247134.2
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9991608012014011493

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+39Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +36
19Coral scored#12
70Coral points42
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
6Processor points6
20Net points12
26Algae points18
96Total teleop60
Reef
7L4#6
7L3#2
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points0
114Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.72.6
44.947.5
Auto13.5
Teleop39.7
End2.4
red by 21.5
2471
#12
34.21.2
35.937.1
Auto5.2
Teleop23.5
End5.5
Second
37.42.6
27.830.5
Auto6.1
Teleop29.8
End1.4
red by 6.6
30.80.8
25.526.2
Auto4.5
Teleop21.1
End5.2
Third
2635
#15
21.21.7
15.917.6
Auto2.6
Teleop12.2
End6.4
Level
2557
#22
21.21.2
19.721.0
Auto2.5
Teleop16.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsEarned