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Red78
367323.0
644332.3
68459.5
Blue76
466221.3
703430.8
943019.1
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63672040801001207876

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
0Teleop0
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
10Coral scored#12
36Coral points43
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
50Total teleop53
Reef
5L4#3
3L3#4
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
15Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
78Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.31.6
29.130.8
Auto6.1
Teleop19.2
End7.0
red by 1.5
30.80.8
26.627.4
Auto4.5
Teleop21.1
End5.2
Second
3673
#14
23.01.5
20.922.4
Auto2.7
Teleop18.1
End2.3
red by 1.8
4662
#13
21.31.1
19.220.3
Auto4.7
Teleop12.3
End4.2
Third
6845
#27
9.51.2
9.610.8
Auto2.5
Teleop3.8
End3.2
blue by 9.5
9430
#18
19.11.0
17.518.6
Auto4.7
Teleop13.0
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsEarned