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Red147
366352.9
357411.3
363655.7
Blue127
154035.4
669637.4
291513.1
93%Model gave it7%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1287850100150200147127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+16Teleop
+14Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points17
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +2
18Coral scored#17
66Coral points60
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
90Total teleop88
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#6
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +20
6Foul points0
147Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.70.5
55.055.5
Auto13.5
Teleop39.7
End2.4
red by 18.3
37.41.0
35.936.9
Auto6.1
Teleop29.8
End1.4
Second
52.90.5
52.252.7
Auto13.3
Teleop34.8
End4.7
red by 17.5
35.41.0
33.934.9
Auto7.4
Teleop22.2
End5.8
Third
3574
#24
11.30.6
10.511.1
Auto2.8
Teleop6.2
End2.3
blue by 1.8
2915
#21
13.11.0
11.612.7
Auto3.4
Teleop8.9
End0.7