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Red146
95760.1
159518.2
255029.4
Blue138
634344.9
683131.6
960036.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13312650100150200250146138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+16
+6Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
3Coral scored#5
17Coral points23
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +13
17Coral scored#20
61Coral points72
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
12Processor points18
20Net points16
32Algae points34
93Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#9
5L3#8
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#5
27Game pieces#32
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
4Foul points2
146Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
957
#1
60.11.2
52.353.5
Auto17.6
Teleop34.7
End7.8
red by 15.1
6343
#17
44.90.8
40.841.6
Auto11.3
Teleop32.0
End1.6
Second
2550
#19
29.41.2
28.129.3
Auto4.1
Teleop18.6
End6.7
blue by 6.7
9600
#18
36.10.8
28.829.6
Auto7.3
Teleop22.8
End6.0
Third
1595
#21
18.21.2
19.520.7
Auto6.7
Teleop8.7
End2.7
blue by 13.4
6831
#27
31.60.8
27.428.3
Auto4.1
Teleop25.4
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsMissed