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Red182
95760.1
154051.6
634344.9
Blue103
273327.4
135916.1
367455.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1638650100150200250182103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+63Teleop
+73Endgame
+79Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave9
8Coral scored#3
38Coral points14
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +42
24Coral scored#9
86Coral points32
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
6Processor points18
16Net points16
22Algae points34
108Total teleop66
Reef
11L4#5
7L3#3
10L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +79
6Foul points0
182Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
957
#1
60.12.1
57.859.9
Auto17.6
Teleop34.7
End7.8
red by 4.4
55.71.0
51.852.8
Auto12.2
Teleop37.3
End6.2
Second
51.62.1
41.543.6
Auto11.8
Teleop33.3
End6.5
red by 24.2
2733
#33
27.41.0
24.025.0
Auto4.4
Teleop21.7
End1.3
Third
6343
#17
44.92.1
45.647.7
Auto11.3
Teleop32.0
End1.6
red by 28.8
1359
#31
16.11.0
12.813.8
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned61%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsEarned