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Red126
247143.9
466223.9
644336.0
Blue106
469232.0
281151.9
135916.1
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10090050150126106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+18Teleop
+20Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points7
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +11
16Coral scored#13
59Coral points48
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
87Total teleop76
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#20
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points0
126Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.92.2
34.236.4
Auto7.7
Teleop30.9
End5.3
blue by 8.0
51.91.3
43.444.7
Auto11.2
Teleop32.1
End8.7
Second
6443
#22
36.02.2
34.236.5
Auto6.7
Teleop22.8
End6.6
red by 4.0
4692
#24
32.01.3
26.828.1
Auto6.3
Teleop25.2
End0.6
Third
4662
#20
23.92.5
21.323.7
Auto5.0
Teleop16.3
End2.6
red by 7.8
1359
#31
16.11.3
10.211.5
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned39%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsEarned