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Red82
1038316.3
808434.6
599333.9
Blue32
926418.7
947317.2
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions94340501508232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+46Teleop
+48Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave0
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points12
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +35
9Coral scored#3
33Coral points10
0Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
0Processor points0
12Net points0
12Algae points0
45Total teleop10
Reef
5L4#2
3L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
15Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
8Foul points6
82Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.60.5
32.632.1
Auto9.3
Teleop24.7
End0.5
red by 15.9
9264
#10
18.71.0
18.617.6
Auto6.9
Teleop10.1
End1.7
Second
33.90.5
29.529.1
Auto8.5
Teleop24.0
End1.4
red by 16.7
9473
#19
17.21.0
17.516.5
Auto3.4
Teleop12.0
End1.8
Third
16.30.5
18.818.3
Auto4.9
Teleop9.3
End2.0
red by 9.8
10542
#16DQ
6.51.0
5.24.1
Auto3.5
Teleop2.1
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed