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Red175
645970.2
761117.2
815971.7
Blue91
926418.7
599333.9
1021327.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1767005010015020025017591

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+96Teleop
+90Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
6Leave0
8Coral scored#5
42Coral points23
48Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +71
25Coral scored#10
89Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
121Total teleop50
Reef
17L4#6
6L3#3
4L2#4
6L1 · trough#2
40Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +84
6Foul points12
175Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.71.0
69.570.6
Auto19.3
Teleop50.3
End2.1
red by 37.8
33.90.1
31.131.1
Auto8.5
Teleop24.0
End1.4
Second
70.21.0
68.469.4
Auto18.2
Teleop51.8
End0.2
red by 43.0
27.20.1
27.227.1
Auto4.9
Teleop21.3
End1.0
Third
17.21.0
12.513.6
Auto3.2
Teleop12.7
End1.3
blue by 1.5
9264
#10
18.70.1
19.119.0
Auto6.9
Teleop10.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsMissed89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
53%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed8%Barge oddsMissed