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Red124
815332.5
999710.5
566531.7
Blue13
1038316.3
753612.9
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions853705010015012413

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+39Teleop
+39Endgame
+111Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +36
6Coral scored#0
22Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
36Total teleop0
Reef
4L4#1
2L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#1
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +111
72Foul points0
124Total score13

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.51.5
29.628.1
Auto4.3
Teleop26.2
End2.0
red by 16.2
16.31.6
17.516.0
Auto4.9
Teleop9.3
End2.0
Second
5665
#18
31.71.5
35.333.8
Auto6.1
Teleop24.7
End0.9
red by 18.8
7536
#21
12.91.6
14.713.2
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End0.5
Third
9997
#14
10.52.0
9.87.8
Auto4.1
Teleop5.2
End1.3
red by 4.0
6.51.6
4.42.8
Auto3.5
Teleop2.1
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
4%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed