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Red172
645970.2
815971.7
926418.7
Blue119
784043.5
808434.6
566531.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173108050150200250300350172119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+53Teleop
+53Endgame
+53Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
6Leave6
10Coral scored#3
48Coral points17
54Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +22
23Coral scored#14
82Coral points52
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
12Processor points12
12Net points20
24Algae points32
106Total teleop84
Reef
13L4#6
7L3#5
10L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#24
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +53
6Foul points6
172Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.70.2
70.670.8
Auto19.3
Teleop50.3
End2.1
red by 28.2
43.50.1
43.443.5
Auto10.5
Teleop27.4
End5.6
Second
70.20.2
69.169.3
Auto18.2
Teleop51.8
End0.2
red by 35.6
34.60.1
34.534.6
Auto9.3
Teleop24.7
End0.5
Third
9264
#10
18.70.2
17.517.7
Auto6.9
Teleop10.1
End1.7
blue by 13.0
5665
#18
31.70.1
31.631.7
Auto6.1
Teleop24.7
End0.9