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Red160
872123.7
10356.9
36557.4
Blue109
272237.0
171236.8
758731.8
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17212950100150200250160109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+31Teleop
+43Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave3
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points20
33Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +21
23Coral scored#17
81Coral points60
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
6Processor points6
16Net points16
22Algae points22
103Total teleop82
Reef
12L4#8
8L3#7
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#26
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +51
8Foul points0
160Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#1
57.40.2
57.257.4
Auto8.9
Teleop40.9
End7.6
red by 20.4
2722
#15
37.00.1
37.137.0
Auto9.6
Teleop26.7
End0.8
Second
103
#2
56.90.2
56.756.9
Auto7.2
Teleop43.2
End6.5
red by 20.2
1712
#11
36.80.1
36.836.8
Auto6.0
Teleop25.5
End5.3
Third
8721
#24
23.70.2
23.523.7
Auto6.3
Teleop16.1
End1.3
blue by 8.1
7587
#17
31.80.1
31.931.8
Auto2.2
Teleop25.5
End4.1