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Red174
272237.0
171236.8
758731.8
Blue161
465338.8
901550.3
622642.2
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12216250100150200250174161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+1Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave0
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points16
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +6
27Coral scored#26
97Coral points93
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#8
12Processor points18
28Net points32
40Algae points50
137Total teleop143
Reef
10L4#11
8L3#9
6L2#3
7L1 · trough#6
40Game pieces#40
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
174Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2722
#15
37.01.1
34.535.6
Auto9.6
Teleop26.7
End0.8
blue by 13.3
9015
#12
50.30.1
50.450.5
Auto10.6
Teleop38.1
End1.6
Second
1712
#11
36.81.1
34.335.3
Auto6.0
Teleop25.5
End5.3
blue by 5.5
6226
#20
42.20.1
42.342.4
Auto3.9
Teleop36.3
End2.0
Third
7587
#17
31.81.1
29.330.4
Auto2.2
Teleop25.5
End4.1
blue by 6.9
38.80.1
38.839.0
Auto10.2
Teleop19.9
End8.7