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Red49
405014.1
900414.4
350426.1
Blue35
541313.9
1058214.0
919414.6
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions565930405070804935

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+16Teleop
+14Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +9
5Coral scored#4
17Coral points14
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
0Processor points6
12Net points0
12Algae points6
29Total teleop20
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points0
49Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3504
#21
26.10.6
23.823.2
Auto7.0
Teleop16.3
End2.9
red by 11.6
9194
#53
14.62.1
16.814.7
Auto3.9
Teleop9.2
End1.5
Second
9004
#47
14.40.6
12.411.8
Auto4.2
Teleop9.5
End0.8
red by 0.4
14.02.1
15.012.9
Auto4.1
Teleop7.3
End2.6
Third
4050
#26
14.10.6
12.411.8
Auto3.1
Teleop9.8
End1.2
red by 0.2
5413
#46
13.92.1
16.814.7
Auto4.0
Teleop7.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
51%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed