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Red65
941521.7
1051519.5
900414.4
Blue95
45123.4
349230.1
947519.5
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4683020601001201406595

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+12
Fouls+30
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
15Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +22
8Coral scored#12
30Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
44Total teleop66
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#4
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#18
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points18
65Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9415
#15
21.71.5
17.719.2
Auto4.3
Teleop15.3
End2.1
blue by 8.4
3492
#22
30.10.2
25.825.6
Auto5.4
Teleop23.2
End1.5
Second
19.51.5
11.412.9
Auto5.9
Teleop12.9
End0.7
blue by 3.9
451
#35
23.40.3
22.121.9
Auto3.1
Teleop19.6
End0.6
Third
9004
#47
14.41.5
11.813.3
Auto4.2
Teleop9.5
End0.8
blue by 5.1
9475
#13
19.50.3
19.419.1
Auto6.3
Teleop11.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
6%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsEarned