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Red111
70838.8
31634.2
260747.6
Blue65
518135.4
21809.8
116826.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1137920406010012014016011165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+36Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave9
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points4
23Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +26
14Coral scored#9
50Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
6Processor points6
16Net points8
22Algae points14
72Total teleop46
Reef
5L4#4
8L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#13
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
111Total score65

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.61.4
39.240.6
Auto7.5
Teleop36.3
End3.8
red by 12.3
5181
#11
35.41.2
26.124.9
Auto5.2
Teleop27.6
End2.6
Second
708
#4
38.81.4
25.627.0
Auto7.6
Teleop24.7
End6.5
red by 11.8
1168
#25
26.91.2
29.428.3
Auto6.9
Teleop17.4
End2.6
Third
316
#18
34.21.4
33.835.2
Auto7.7
Teleop25.9
End0.6
red by 24.4
2180
#27
9.81.2
19.918.8
Auto2.5
Teleop5.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsMissed