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Red128
901416.2
437333.8
121855.4
Blue56
1023217.0
909434.7
1014313.5
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101685015012856

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+56Teleop
+58Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
9Leave6
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points3
40Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +25
12Coral scored#6
44Coral points23
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
62Total teleop37
Reef
5L4#3
7L3#2
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +72
20Foul points6
128Total score56

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.41.5
45.046.5
Auto12.6
Teleop34.5
End8.4
red by 20.7
34.71.4
35.634.1
Auto9.1
Teleop20.7
End5.0
Second
33.82.5
27.029.5
Auto11.3
Teleop20.5
End2.0
red by 16.8
17.01.4
17.215.8
Auto3.1
Teleop11.7
End2.2
Third
9014
#17
16.22.5
13.616.1
Auto5.7
Teleop9.2
End1.3
red by 2.8
13.51.4
9.98.5
Auto3.9
Teleop7.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsMissed