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Red101
437333.8
540720.4
42322.3
Blue47
511321.5
139145.2
209516.6
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6810305015010147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+44Teleop
+56Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave3
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points13
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +37
12Coral scored#4
42Coral points13
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
12Processor points0
8Net points12
20Algae points12
62Total teleop25
Reef
4L4#2
5L3#3
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#10
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
0Foul points2
101Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.83.3
28.131.4
Auto11.3
Teleop20.5
End2.0
blue by 11.4
45.24.0
46.142.1
Auto9.0
Teleop30.5
End5.8
Second
423
#9
22.32.5
21.023.5
Auto3.5
Teleop14.6
End4.2
red by 0.8
5113
#12
21.54.0
25.621.7
Auto4.9
Teleop12.3
End4.3
Third
5407
#14
20.42.5
15.017.5
Auto4.5
Teleop11.9
End4.0
red by 3.8
2095
#11
16.63.0
17.814.9
Auto5.9
Teleop7.5
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsEarned69%Barge oddsMissed