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Red227
331472.2
171233.5
260771.2
Blue181
48443.0
10355.6
437339.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions212162100250300227181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+38Teleop
+48Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
9Coral scored#5
45Coral points23
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +10
33Coral scored#27
118Coral points98
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
12Processor points18
20Net points24
32Algae points42
150Total teleop140
Reef
22L4#9
7L3#11
6L2#7
7L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#41
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points2
227Total score181

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.20.8
69.670.4
Auto17.5
Teleop44.3
End10.3
red by 16.6
103
#17
55.60.5
55.155.6
Auto2.3
Teleop47.6
End5.7
Second
71.20.8
68.769.4
Auto17.7
Teleop45.2
End8.4
red by 28.2
484
#6
43.00.5
42.643.0
Auto13.5
Teleop24.5
End5.1
Third
1712
#18
33.50.8
30.931.7
Auto4.9
Teleop23.8
End4.7
blue by 6.0
4373
#33
39.50.5
39.039.5
Auto9.1
Teleop25.5
End5.0