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Red202
331471.3
941623.1
260765.4
Blue129
180757.2
139153.5
81618.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169135100150200250202129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+51Teleop
+73Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave9
8Coral scored#3
38Coral points17
47Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +30
23Coral scored#19
81Coral points69
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
18Processor points12
20Net points8
38Algae points20
119Total teleop89
Reef
13L4#9
5L3#5
8L2#3
5L1 · trough#5
39Game pieces#26
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +73
0Foul points0
202Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.31.0
69.670.7
Auto18.7
Teleop42.9
End9.7
red by 14.1
57.20.0
56.656.6
Auto12.2
Teleop39.1
End5.8
Second
65.41.0
63.864.8
Auto16.2
Teleop39.7
End9.5
red by 12.0
53.50.0
52.952.9
Auto9.0
Teleop38.0
End6.4
Third
9416
#22
23.11.0
21.522.5
Auto3.3
Teleop14.3
End5.6
red by 4.6
816
#27
18.50.0
18.318.3
Auto2.7
Teleop12.5
End3.3