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Red274
2910115.2
703455.3
293074.3
Blue220
945082.5
94845.9
177891.8
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions261230200250300274220

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+23Auto
+14Teleop
+44Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +23
9Leave9
13Coral scored#8
64Coral points41
73Total auto50
TeleoperatedBlue +9
31Coral scored#33
111Coral points118
3Processor algae#4
6Net algae#5
18Processor points24
24Net points20
42Algae points44
153Total teleop162
Reef
14L4#13
10L3#13
13L2#9
7L1 · trough#6
53Game pieces#50
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +54
12Foul points2
274Total score220

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
115.20.4
114.8115.2
Auto26.5
Teleop76.6
End12.2
red by 23.4
91.80.1
91.991.8
Auto21.2
Teleop66.8
End3.9
Second
2930
#20
74.30.4
73.974.3
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
blue by 8.1
9450
#15
82.50.1
82.582.5
Auto19.0
Teleop53.3
End10.2
Third
7034
#18
55.30.4
54.955.3
Auto13.6
Teleop33.7
End8.0
red by 9.4
948
#44
45.90.1
46.045.9
Auto9.1
Teleop31.1
End5.8