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Red269
2910115.2
703455.3
293074.3
Blue228
945082.5
94845.9
177891.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions260231200250300269228

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+13Teleop
+35Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
3Leave3
14Coral scored#8
68Coral points41
71Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +14
27Coral scored#33
96Coral points120
6Processor algae#3
6Net algae#8
36Processor points18
24Net points32
60Algae points50
156Total teleop170
Reef
20L4#11
12L3#15
5L2#11
4L1 · trough#4
53Game pieces#52
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +41
6Foul points0
269Total score228

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
115.20.5
114.4114.8
Auto26.5
Teleop76.6
End12.2
red by 23.4
91.80.2
91.791.9
Auto21.2
Teleop66.8
End3.9
Second
2930
#20
74.30.5
73.473.9
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
blue by 8.1
9450
#15
82.50.2
82.382.5
Auto19.0
Teleop53.3
End10.2
Third
7034
#18
55.30.5
54.454.9
Auto13.6
Teleop33.7
End8.0
red by 9.4
948
#44
45.90.2
45.846.0
Auto9.1
Teleop31.1
End5.8