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Red186
404352.0
451260.7
36057.2
Blue156
451362.2
95558.7
683136.6
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions152140100120160180200186156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
8Coral scored#5
41Coral points23
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +9
25Coral scored#26
90Coral points95
4Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
24Processor points6
12Net points16
36Algae points22
126Total teleop117
Reef
9L4#8
11L3#11
8L2#6
5L1 · trough#6
40Game pieces#36
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
186Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4512
#13
60.72.7
41.444.1
Auto17.7
Teleop40.4
End2.5
blue by 1.5
4513
#22
62.21.6
49.350.9
Auto7.9
Teleop42.3
End12.0
Second
360
#46
57.22.7
56.258.8
Auto10.2
Teleop42.1
End4.9
blue by 1.5
955
#32
58.71.6
49.150.7
Auto16.8
Teleop40.5
End1.5
Third
4043
#10
52.02.7
45.548.2
Auto11.5
Teleop33.5
End7.0
red by 15.3
6831
#38
36.61.6
31.433.0
Auto4.4
Teleop28.6
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned90%Barge oddsEarned