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Red200
491558.8
669659.5
945082.5
Blue126
357430.4
293074.3
99736.4
98%Model gave it2%

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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18210850150200250200126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+72Teleop
+74Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points14
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +58
34Coral scored#15
123Coral points53
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#6
12Processor points12
12Net points24
24Algae points36
147Total teleop89
Reef
19L4#6
8L3#6
5L2#5
8L1 · trough#1
45Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
0Foul points0
200Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9450
#15
82.52.0
67.469.4
Auto19.0
Teleop53.3
End10.2
red by 8.1
2930
#20
74.31.0
60.561.6
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
Second
6696
#31
59.52.0
51.753.7
Auto11.4
Teleop47.1
End1.1
red by 23.1
997
#33
36.41.0
32.233.2
Auto8.4
Teleop27.5
End0.6
Third
4915
#28
58.82.0
51.253.1
Auto14.2
Teleop38.7
End6.0
red by 28.4
3574
#39
30.41.0
17.618.6
Auto5.5
Teleop17.9
End7.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsEarned16%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsEarned