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Red168
293074.3
49252.2
321857.1
Blue135
412526.9
406147.2
363663.9
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15914050100200250168135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+19Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
3Leave0
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points29
44Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +4
22Coral scored#21
80Coral points74
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
18Processor points12
12Net points20
30Algae points32
110Total teleop106
Reef
8L4#10
11L3#8
7L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#34
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
168Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2930
#20
74.31.0
61.662.6
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
red by 10.4
3636
#35
63.90.0
61.261.2
Auto13.9
Teleop48.7
End1.3
Second
3218
#23
57.11.0
46.047.0
Auto13.6
Teleop38.0
End5.4
red by 9.9
4061
#42
47.20.0
41.341.3
Auto9.8
Teleop35.7
End1.7
Third
492
#12
52.21.0
36.537.5
Auto8.1
Teleop37.5
End6.6
red by 25.4
4125
#50
26.90.0
24.724.7
Auto6.0
Teleop20.1
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
37%Coral oddsEarned39%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed