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Red158
683136.6
94845.9
491558.8
Blue133
406147.2
446962.1
49252.2
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141148100120160180200158133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+5Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points16
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +2
20Coral scored#21
73Coral points75
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
18Processor points18
20Net points20
38Algae points38
111Total teleop113
Reef
8L4#8
5L3#7
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#32
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
158Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4915
#28
58.81.8
51.453.3
Auto14.2
Teleop38.7
End6.0
blue by 3.3
4469
#43
62.10.2
57.457.2
Auto13.9
Teleop45.8
End2.4
Second
948
#44
45.91.8
46.147.9
Auto9.1
Teleop31.1
End5.8
blue by 6.3
492
#12
52.20.2
37.537.3
Auto8.1
Teleop37.5
End6.6
Third
6831
#38
36.61.8
33.034.8
Auto4.4
Teleop28.6
End3.6
blue by 10.6
4061
#42
47.20.2
41.341.1
Auto9.8
Teleop35.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
47%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed