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Red162
321857.1
95767.2
214753.4
Blue147
382629.3
903650.7
945082.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20218650100150250300350162147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
Teleop+5
+7Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
9Leave9
6Coral scored#4
28Coral points20
37Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +13
19Coral scored#16
67Coral points58
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#7
12Processor points18
12Net points28
24Algae points46
91Total teleop104
Reef
10L4#7
5L3#5
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
8Foul points0
162Total score147

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
957
#17
67.21.5
68.266.7
Auto16.6
Teleop39.6
End10.9
blue by 15.3
9450
#15
82.50.9
79.778.7
Auto19.0
Teleop53.3
End10.2
Second
3218
#23
57.11.5
58.356.8
Auto13.6
Teleop38.0
End5.4
red by 6.4
9036
#14
50.70.9
51.750.7
Auto3.6
Teleop43.9
End3.2
Third
2147
#40
53.41.5
49.448.0
Auto10.2
Teleop38.1
End5.2
red by 24.2
3826
#45
29.30.9
29.628.7
Auto7.1
Teleop17.8
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
66%Coral oddsMissed73%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned