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Red191
902370.5
412526.9
177891.8
Blue153
94845.9
142566.7
95558.7
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions207184120140160220240260280191153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+48Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
3Leave3
5Coral scored#10
27Coral points48
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +69
33Coral scored#15
119Coral points54
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#7
18Processor points6
20Net points28
38Algae points34
157Total teleop88
Reef
11L4#12
14L3#5
7L2#3
6L1 · trough#5
46Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
191Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.80.5
89.489.9
Auto21.2
Teleop66.8
End3.9
red by 25.1
1425
#11
66.71.1
66.165.0
Auto20.2
Teleop38.0
End8.5
Second
70.50.5
70.370.7
Auto14.0
Teleop53.1
End3.4
red by 11.8
955
#32
58.71.1
56.355.1
Auto16.8
Teleop40.5
End1.5
Third
4125
#50
26.90.5
24.424.8
Auto6.0
Teleop20.1
End0.8
blue by 19.1
948
#44
45.91.1
47.846.7
Auto9.1
Teleop31.1
End5.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
96%Coral oddsEarned78%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed90%Barge oddsEarned